Over the last decade, FMCG promotions have moved from multi-buy offers made to every shopper and planned for volume, towards targeted offers that shoppers discover digitally and that manufacturers judge on profitable growth. The change has been driven by shoppers themselves: they are more informed, more connected and more value-conscious, and they plan around promotions rather than react to them.

In FMCG, a trade promotion is a temporary price reduction or offer run through a retailer and funded through trade investment, with the aim of generating sales that would not otherwise have happened. That last part is what matters: a promotion's value lies in its incrementality, not in the volume sold while it runs.

For decades, promotions were one of the most dependable levers available to FMCG manufacturers. A well-timed discount or multi-buy offer could drive a visible sales uplift, secure retailer support and gain market share. The question for manufacturers in 2026 is different: not how many promotions to run, but which promotions genuinely create profitable growth.

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The short answer

Seven shifts have changed FMCG promotions since 2016:

1. Shoppers plan around promotions. They recognise promotional cycles and delay purchases until the next offer, so a significant share of promotional volume can be purchases brought forward rather than new demand.

2. Multi-buy mechanics are declining. Percentage discounts, fixed-price offers and loyalty card pricing have become far more common than offers such as Buy One Get One Free.

3. Loyalty pricing has made promotions targeted. Retailer schemes reward identified customers instead of offering every shopper the same discount.

4. Promotions are discovered before the store. Retailer apps, digital coupons, online grocery, cashback applications and social media shape the purchase decision upstream.

5. Value matters more than brand loyalty. Cost-of-living pressure has made shoppers more willing to switch brands, buy private label and wait for offers.

6. Promotions now work alongside Price Pack Architecture. Manufacturers create value through pack formats instead of relying on ever-deeper discounts.

7. Data has replaced gut feel. Promotions are planned on price elasticity, incrementality and promotional ROI rather than on experience and retailer requests.

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FMCG promotions in 2016 and 2026, compared

FMCG promotions differ between 2016 and 2026 on seven dimensions, one for each shift. The most important difference is the objective: a decade ago promotions were planned to drive volume, and today they are judged on profitable growth.

• Shopper behaviour. A decade ago, shoppers reacted to offers on impulse. Today they plan purchases around promotional cycles.

• Promotional mechanics. Multi-buy offers such as Buy One Get One Free once dominated the aisle; percentage discounts, fixed prices and loyalty card pricing are now far more common.

• Reach of an offer. National offers open to every shopper have given way to personalised offers for identified loyalty members.

• Where offers are discovered. Printed leaflets, television and the aisle used to be where shoppers found promotions, a role now played by retailer apps, digital coupons and online grocery platforms.

• Brand loyalty. Broad loyalty to brands has become conditional on value, and switching is more common than it was.

• Role of pack architecture. Discounts used to deliver most of the value. Pack formats now create value alongside promotions.

• Planning basis and objective. Where promotions were once planned on experience and retailer requests to drive volume, data-driven RGM now plans them to deliver profitable growth.

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Shoppers have learned the promotional cycle

The biggest change of the last decade is that FMCG shoppers have become promotion-savvy.

Shopping apps, retailer loyalty schemes, price comparison websites and digital marketing keep shoppers constantly exposed to pricing information. They understand promotional cycles, recognise which products are frequently discounted and often delay purchases until the next offer appears.

Instead of reacting to offers on impulse, many now plan around them: buying larger quantities when a discount appears and avoiding full price in between.

For manufacturers, this reduces the incremental value of traditional promotions. A significant share of promotional volume may be purchases brought forward rather than new demand, which makes incrementality, not uplift, the right starting point. Assessing incrementality and comparing promotional scenarios before execution is the ground Sunstice Trade Promotion Management & Optimization works on.

Multi-buy is giving way to simpler mechanics

The multi-buy mechanics that once dominated FMCG promotions are becoming less common.

A decade ago, supermarket aisles were full of offers such as:

• Buy One Get One Free

• 3 for €10

• Buy 2, Save 20%

These mechanics still exist, but many retailers have moved towards simpler pricing structures. Percentage discounts, fixed-price offers and loyalty card pricing have become far more common.

Four factors have driven the shift:

• Shopper preference for straightforward pricing.

• Less food waste from forced bulk purchases.

• Greater pricing transparency.

• A stronger retailer focus on profitability rather than volume alone.

The period when almost every promotion relied on a multi-buy mechanic is ending.

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Loyalty pricing has changed the rules

Retailers increasingly reward identified customers rather than offering every shopper the same discount.

Retailer loyalty programmes have reshaped promotional strategy. Schemes such as Tesco Clubcard Prices, Sainsbury's Nectar Prices and other membership programmes allow promotions to become targeted rather than universal.

For manufacturers, this creates both opportunity and complexity. Targeted promotions can be significantly more effective, but they require deeper shopper insight and closer collaboration with retailers.

The practical consequence is that a promotion is no longer one offer evaluated once. It is a set of offers to different shoppers, whose effect has to be read across customers and channels.

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Promotions are discovered before the store

The FMCG shopper journey now starts long before the aisle.

Ten years ago, shoppers discovered promotions through television advertising, printed leaflets or simply by walking down the aisle. Today, many discover them before they enter the store.

Retailer apps, digital coupons, online grocery platforms, cashback applications, social media and email campaigns all influence the purchase decision long before a product reaches the basket.

For promotional planning, this means an offer competes earlier and in more places, and its effect is harder to attribute to a single moment in store.

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Inflation has made value matter more than brand loyalty

Cost-of-living pressure accelerated changes in shopper behaviour that were already underway.

Over the last few years, shoppers have become increasingly willing to:

• Switch brands.

• Buy private label alternatives.

• Shop across several retailers.

• Wait for promotional events.

• Buy larger packs when discounts appear.

Brand loyalty still exists, but it is increasingly conditional on genuine value. A promotion that only lowers price, without reinforcing why the brand is worth choosing, risks teaching shoppers to switch on the next offer instead.

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Promotions now work alongside pack architecture

Deeper discounts are no longer the main route to value in FMCG. Pack design is.

One of the most important strategic shifts in FMCG has been the growing role of Price Pack Architecture (PPA). Rather than relying on ever-deeper discounts, manufacturers create value through five kinds of deliberately designed format:

• Entry-price packs.

• Family packs.

• Multipacks.

• Premium formats.

• Seasonal editions.

This lets brands meet different shopper needs while protecting margin and pricing integrity. Promotions remain important, but they now work alongside pricing strategy rather than replacing it.

Pack and pricing architecture decisions sit in Sunstice Pricing Strategy and Sunstice Assortment Planning. How promotions and pack architecture interact is covered in [Why PPA and TPM Need to Work Together: internal link].

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Data has replaced gut feel

Every euro invested in trade promotion is now expected to show a measurable return.

The most significant organisational change has been the rise of Revenue Growth Management (RGM). Where promotions were once planned largely on experience and retailer requests, leading manufacturers now analyse six factors:

• Price elasticity.

• Incrementality.

• Promotional ROI.

• Shopper behaviour.

• Channel performance.

• Retail execution.

The question is no longer whether a promotion increased sales. It is whether it generated profitable, sustainable growth.

Answering it requires internal performance and external market signals in one view, which Sunstice Market Data brings together, and a link between promotional plans and category and financial targets, which is the role of Sunstice Category Financial Planning.

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What an effective promotional strategy looks like now

An effective FMCG promotional strategy in 2026 meets six conditions:

• Incrementality. Promotions are judged on the sales they add, not the volume sold while they run.

• Targeting. Where retailer programmes allow it, offers are designed for identified shoppers and missions, not only as universal discounts.

• Mechanics. The mechanic matches how shoppers now buy, with simple pricing favoured over forced bulk purchases.

• Architecture. Promotions reinforce the pack and price structure rather than substituting for it.

• Channels. Promotional effect is read across the channels where shoppers now discover offers, not only in store.

• Measurement. Success means profitable, sustainable growth, with ROI assessed before and after execution.

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A practical check

Eight questions test whether promotional planning has caught up with a decade of shopper change:

• What share of last year's promotional volume was genuinely incremental?

• How much was forward buying by shoppers who would have bought anyway?

• Do current mechanics reflect how shoppers buy now, or how they bought ten years ago?

• Where retailer loyalty pricing exists, is it planned deliberately or accepted by default?

• Is promotional ROI assessed before execution, or only explained afterwards?

• Do promotions reinforce the pack and price architecture, or undermine it?

• Is promotional performance measured on profit or on volume?

• Would the same trade investment create more value in a different pack, customer or channel?

These questions show whether the promotional calendar has adapted to how shoppers buy today, or repeats the calendar that worked before.

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Explore FMCG promotions further

The last decade has shown that promotions are no longer simply about reducing price. They are about delivering value in a way that resonates with more informed shoppers. The manufacturers that perform best will not necessarily be those that spend the most on promotions, but those that understand why shoppers buy, when they buy and what leads them to choose one product over another.

Within Sunstice Revenue Growth Management, promotional incrementality and trade spend effectiveness sit in Sunstice Trade Promotion Management & Optimization, pack and pricing architecture in Sunstice Pricing Strategy and Sunstice Assortment Planning, market signals in Sunstice Market Data, and the financial frame in Sunstice Category Financial Planning.

Explore Sunstice Revenue Growth Management to see how the six capabilities work on one decision foundation, and read Why Price Pack Architecture Is the Most Powerful Growth Lever in FMCG for more on pack design.

To understand how Sunstice combines structure with responsiveness in commercial planning, see Structured Agility™.

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